| The coffee berry borer (CBB; Hypothenemus hampei) is the costliest pest for coffee production worldwide, costing more than $500 million annually. Though CBB infestation rates are lower in shade-grown coffee than sun-grown coffee, it is unclear if this trend is due to abiotic factors or predation pressure. Extensive research in East Africa has shown that temperature significantly influences CBB presence and population growth, supporting bottom-up control of CBB abundance. However, in the neo-tropics, bird and ant predation have significant impacts on CBB populations, and avian insectivore richness is higher in shade than in sun, indicating top-down control. It is unknown if birds and ants consume CBB in East Africa. To provide solutions for coffee farmers in the future with a changing climate, it is crucial to determine exactly what restricts CBB abundance, severity and distribution. I plan to sample bird, CBB, and ant populations on sun and shade coffee farms across an elevation gradient in Kiambu County, Kenya in winter 2017. I will use combination mechanistic and correlative spatial models to determine which factors determine CBB infestation and abundance. Once these interactions are fully understood, we can predict the effects of CBB on coffee into the future. |